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Bush stumbles: The U.S. nuclear report empowers the Iranians

Posted By Emile Tayyip

December 4, 2007

On Monday, the U.S. intelligence community concluded that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program four years ago, and is unlikely to have resumed it; a finding that would dramatically influence the stand-off over Tehran’s nuclear case.

The U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran, which expresses the consensus of the 16 branches of the intelligence community, sharply contradicts claims by the White House that the Islamic Republic is seeking nuclear weapons. It is also at odds with a 2005 NIE finding that Tehran was working towards an atomic bomb.
 
In the assessment, the NIE says that Iran’s halt of its bomb program in 2003 in response to international pressure "suggests it is less determined to build nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005." Even if Iran wanted to restart its halted program, it wouldn’t be able to produce enough nuclear material to build a bomb before two years, or even more. (See video: U.S. report: Iran is not developing a nuclear weapon)

"This is an astounding conclusion," Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, was quoted by the BBC as saying.

"The assessment in 2005 that Iran had a nuclear weapons programme was based on evidence from a hard drive handed over by defector… Since then Western intelligence agencies have tried to find out if Iran had continued with that programme. In fact, they have decided that it did not,“ Mr Fitzpatrick added.

The NIE findings come as no surprise to those who have been closely following the Iranian nuclear case.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin recently said that there was no "concrete evidence" that Iran was building a bomb, remarks that have been reiterated several times by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Mohamed ElBaradei.

Commenting on the NIE report, a senior IAEA official told AFP on Tuesday that  the findings confirm the UN atomic watchdog’s assessment that Tehran represents “no imminent danger”. 

So does this mean that Iran has won?

An unidentified Pentagon official told the Time that the report "empowers the Iranians and weakens everybody else.”

In fact, the Iranians welcomed the report as a vindication of their long-standing assertion that their nuclear program is strictly peaceful.

"It's natural that we welcome it when those countries who in the past have questions and ambiguities about this case ... now amend their views realistically," Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told state radio. "The condition of Iran's peaceful nuclear activities is becoming clear to the world."

  • What about sanctions?

Despite the fact that the NIE notes that Iran’s intentions remain unclear, it certainly strikes a major blow to those who favour military action against Tehran’s nuclear installations.

The question now is whether the report would reduce the pressure against Iran or not.

According to the Time, President Bush's National Security Adviser, Stephen Hadley, rushed to assure the media that the glass was half full. "The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically - without the use of force - as the administration has been trying to do," said Hadley. "For that strategy to succeed, the international community has to turn up the pressure on Iran - with diplomatic isolation, United Nations sanctions, and with other financial pressure - and Iran has to decide it wants to negotiate a solution."

But the NIE report would undermine Washington's drive to convince other world powers to agree further UN sanctions against the Islamic Republic, a move strongly opposed by Russia and China. 

If the UN Security Council fails to approve a third round of sanctions against Iran, the UK and France will probably ask the EU to follow the U.S. in taking unilateral measures, especially the reduction or cutting off of export credits to Iran.

But again, if the heat is off following the NIE report, some EU countries that export heavily to Iran might be reluctant to go as far as they otherwise might have.

  • Military threat

Many analysts believe that the U.S. wouldn’t remove the threat of military action against Iran, even after the NIE concluded that Tehran represents no imminent nuclear threat . Six weeks ago, President Bush warned that Iran's nuclear activity could be the cause of World War III. But Bush’s words were chosen; he didn’t say World War III would be the consequence of Iran attaining a nuclear weapon. He said: "If you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from hav(ing) the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon."

Bush’s warning clarified that the red line for his administration isn’t an Iranian nuclear weapons program per se, but rather Iran acquiring  "the knowledge necessary to make" such an atomic bomb - which is the technology of uranium enrichment; a process used in civilian nuclear programs or bombs making -- depending on the level of enrichment.

Uranium enrichment is entirely legal for any signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran has the right to enrich uranium as a signatory of the NPT, although it has been ordered to halt the process because of its non-compliance with some transparency requirements in its previous nuclear activities. The suspension, therefore, is seen as a temporary requirement, until Iran satisfies the concerns of the IAEA.

But the U.S. wants to stop Iran from enriching uranium, alleging that once Tehran masters the technology of uranium enrichment, it would withdraw from the NPT - like North Korea - and start building a nuclear weapon. 

On the other hand, Iran defies the demand to stop enrichment, even after it was backed by UN sanctions. It’s well known now that the Iranian government prefers to live with sanctions than to give up its nuclear rights. At the same time, Tehran is cooperating with the IAEA to resolve all outstanding issues.

So while Iran wants to resolve the standoff without halting its nuclear activities, the U.S. wants it to completely abandon its atomic program, at any cost and regardless of the transparency issues. 

But selling the war against Iran would be a very tough job, especially to an American public that feels it was already duped once on Iraq's alleged WMD.

“This (the NIE report) is a new and important development. It removes any possibility of a military strike in the next year. There would be no substantive cause and no public support… It also shows that lessons have been learned from Iraq. The U.S. intelligence agencies are determined to show their independence from political influence,” says Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

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